The development of the new energy automobile market dominated by the Chinese government has attracted the attention of multinational companies from all walks of life. In fact, all parties in the exploration of new energy have embarked on a different course.
Whether it is a pure electric vehicle or a hybrid vehicle, the power battery is still the key to development. At present, China's power battery industry is in a critical stage of transition from a technology catch-up period to a synchronous development period. Under the support of relevant national policies, it is necessary to further subvert Technical breakthroughs and collaborative innovation.
Japanese car brands that have always had a sense of crisis with traditional energy sources have taken the lead in exploring new energy technologies. Whether it is Toyota's multi-directional attack, including hybrids, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cells and hydrogen power technology in the transitional phase. All involved. Later, competitors such as Renault-Nissan Alliance and Volkswagen focused mainly on the field of pure electric vehicles. Relatively speaking, pure electric vehicles are the transitional stage with the lowest technical difficulty.
Chen Qingquan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, publicly stated previously that the zero-emissions of purely electric power in the mainstream technology line depends mainly on the battery. The battery is electrochemical and has certain limitations. The hybrid drive system in Japan is very complicated; However, the engine does not participate in the drive and generates electricity to power the motor or charge the battery. Therefore, there is a great future for the increase of the program.
After the pure-electricity faction supported by the policy gradually moves toward the development track, with the retreat of new energy subsidies, eventually all new energy vehicles will experience a direct market game and competition. After all, if the subsidy policy is completely reduced after three years, it will be able to see the clues. Therefore, the world’s top three auto groups are eagerly waiting for this opportunity to come.
Slope reduction period 3 years
The new energy auto industry has entered the golden period from its initial stage. It seems to be the consensus of all parties. According to the data of the CLUCC, total sales of new energy vehicles in 2017 reached 560,000 units, an increase of 75% compared with 2016 sales of 320,000 units; compared to the 2.1% growth in auto sales in 2017, The growth trend of the new energy automobile industry is obvious.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January-February this year, new energy vehicles sold nearly 75,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 200%. At present, the target sales volume of the mainstream new energy automobile enterprises has exceeded 700,000 vehicles. According to the current growth situation, the actual sales growth is expected to further exceed this figure.
At the two national conferences this year, Premier Li Keqiang’s government work report clearly stated that the new energy automobile industry will be supported for three years. The industry interpreted this as saying that the central government has determined the number of years for the subsidy policy for the new energy auto industry. In the next three years, independent brands in the new energy auto industry will have to compare their own technology products with traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles that are jointly invested and imported.
In fact, the development of independent brands in the field of new energy mainly depends on the subsidy of the central and local governments at all levels, which is particularly evident in the field of new energy buses. Times Weekly reporter found that, as of the end of March this year, among the new energy bus companies that have already announced their performance, the bus segment performance of most companies has shown a linear decline.
In fact, this sign appeared in the last year. Affected by the policy of new energy subsidy and slope retreat, in 2017 pure electric buses ended up with sales of 89,000 units, a drop of 23%.
In 2017, the performance of many vehicle-listed companies including BYD, Zhongtong Bus, Ankai Bus, Shuguang Stock, and Foton Motor, which included the new energy bus business, experienced a significant decline. Among them, the net profit of Zhongtong Bus dropped by 78%. This is already a significant decline in net profit of Zhongtong Bus in the second year.
On the other hand, in the field of new energy passenger vehicles, due to the support of preferential policies for new energy licenses, some limited-edition city consumers have chosen new energy passenger vehicles as an alternative travel alternative, but the growth of license and other resources is limited, and consumer vehicles have always been concerned about the battery life. Problems such as mileage, low charging piles, and excessive vehicle prices have not shown any obvious signs of improvement.
The Times Weekly reporter found that the top ten domestic electric vehicle sales products found that only the BYD e5 and Geely Dorsett EV's full electric cruising range can reach more than 300 kilometers. With no additional loss, it is barely close to the current mainstream fuel vehicles. At the endurance level, the life of the other eight products does not exceed 200 kilometers, making it difficult to pose a threat to traditional fuel vehicles.
Imported auto products from abroad have an overwhelming advantage in their endurance due to high cost and pricing (Tesla's maximum life exceeds 500 kilometers), but it is still not enough to threaten and affect the domestic pure electric vehicle industry. .
However, the country’s subsidy for the new energy automotive industry, that is, the field of pure electric vehicles, has clearly set a timetable for slope retreat. Therefore, multinational auto companies have actively prepared for the new energy market.
Toyota's thinking
While China’s own brands have made efforts to develop new energy pure electric fields due to policy subsidies, Toyota Motor, which has been promoting hybrid technology, has recently taken a step forward.
Recently, Toyota Motor Co., for the first time in Sao Paulo, Brazil, released the world’s first experimental vehicle equipped with a hybrid system on a hybrid fuel vehicle that uses gasoline and ethanol as fuel. In the future, it will collect relevant data from the driving test in Brazil. The durability and powertrain performance of the FFV were verified to promote the practical application of hybrid FFV in Brazil.
In the next stage of development of pure electric vehicles, Toyota Motor has also advanced to the fuel cell and hydrogen power stage, and has entered a practical stage.
In the field of fuel cell (hydrogen powered), Toyota Motor Corporation acquired the certification of the fuel cell bus model for the first time in Japan, and began selling on March 7. It is reported that during the Tokyo Olympic Games and Paralympic Games in 2020, Toyota Motor is expected to put more than 100 fuel cell buses in Tokyo as the center.
As early as last October, Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. opened an experimental test of hydrogen fuel cells in China at the R&D center in Changshu, China. Toyota China Chairman Daisuke Hiroshi told the Times Weekly reporter: “We hope to develop with a long-term vision. The relevant work will refer to the results of this empirical test and extend the feasibility study to commercial vehicles such as buses, and actively explore the possibility of introducing it into China.â€
From the current perspective, Toyota Motor has been at the forefront of research and development in new energy vehicles. It appears that this is a transitional protection of hybrid patented technology. This has led to the industry’s development to bypass the hybrid development phase of Toyota’s own vehicle. Toyota Motor is facing tremendous pressure to promote itself.
In order to promote the popularization of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), Toyota Motor also announced in 2015 that it will use Toyota's exclusive right to use about 5,680 fuel cell patents (including pending patents).
Some analysts pointed out that in the new energy vehicles in the technical route and phase, Toyota chose the most recent hybrid transition and the most remote zero-emission hydrogen fuel-powered batteries, and China's choice of pure electric vehicle routes did not Direct conflict can also be an effective supplement to market products. Therefore, in a short period of time, the opponents of independent new energy car brands will fall on those multinationals that generally choose the pure electric technology route.
Nissan and Volkswagen's electric war
If the pace of Toyota Motor has already reached the next stage of competition, the new energy strategy plan launched by Nissan Motors and Volkswagen will be the closest to the Chinese new energy vehicle market.
Nissan Motors, which has also been deployed in the field of pure electric vehicle technology, is eager to demand a share of the new energy vehicle market in China. Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. recently announced that Nissan Motors plans to increase its annual sales of electric vehicles to 1 million units by fiscal year 2022, including pure electric vehicles and vehicles equipped with the Nissan e-POWER motor power transmission system.
Nissan Motor Co.’s chief performance officer and executive vice president, Nissan’s China management committee chairman Jose Munoz, told Time Weekly that the company will continue to use its expertise in the field of electric vehicles as Nissan’s car is getting better in China. Seize the huge business opportunities in the Chinese market.
Previously, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance and Dongfeng Motor have established a joint venture of new energy vehicles, Easygate New Energy Automotive Co., Ltd. (eGT), with each holding 50%. eGT will develop advanced economical electric vehicles. The first model will be built on the small SUV platform of Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, which is expected to start production at the Dongfeng Motor Shiyan plant in 2019 with an annual production capacity of 120,000. station.
At the same time, Volkswagen also mentioned in its previously announced 2025 strategy that it will introduce more than 20 new models, including imported and domestic plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles, for domestic pure electric vehicles and currently under development. Some domestic hybrid new-start auto brands have begun to push themselves closely.
Volkswagen brand Chinese CEO Feng Sihan told Time Weekly reporter: “The Tiguan L plug-in hybrid version and IDCROZZ show that we are ready for the future of the electric age. From 2020, we will also provide consumers with several ID families. Pure electric SUV models such as IDCROZZ."
In fact, the self-branded camps have also talked about whether the hybrid or pure electricity is more in line with the current market demand. In the long run, pure electricity seems to be a good result, but in the longer term, the fuel cell or hydrogen power It is a more perfect solution. After the promotion of the pure electric technology route in the past few years, some independent brands have begun to explore and research and develop in plug-in hybrid and extension programs.
Insiders told the Times Weekly reporter that because of Toyota’s technical barriers in the hybrid field, most auto companies chose to bypass the hybrid technology field and directly enter the pure electric field. At present, the hybrid technology is more in line with the current situation. We need to add this gap to our needs.
All parties have already targeted the growth potential of China's new energy auto industry. Ultimately, after the three-year subsidy has completely retreated, independent car companies are likely to usher in the first positive confrontation of multinational auto companies in the new energy field.
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