On the eve of the Ching Ming Festival, Sino-US trade frictions are heard. Let's take a look at the related content with the car electronics editor.
According to Section 301, the Trump Administration of the United States intends to impose a 25% tariff on 1,333 items worth $50 billion worth of Chinese exports to the United States, mainly in the fields of information and communication technology, aerospace, robotics, medicine, machinery and other industries. The Chinese government immediately countered it and proposed to impose a 25% tariff on 14 categories of 106 US$50 billion worth of goods, including soybeans, automobiles and chemicals originating in the United States.
Sino-US trade friction affects the geometry of the automotive industry
Looking at the list of goods subject to tariffs between China and the United States, the vast majority belong to different industries, but there is an intersection between the two sides - the car. This trade friction will inevitably bring about the influence of the conventional competition between China and the United States and the world automobile industry. How will it be more important in terms of losses? How will it affect the competitive landscape of the global automobile market? How will the Chinese government and enterprises further response?
â– Based on trade figures: the losses on both sides are almost the same
According to China Customs data, in 2017, China imported US$15.663 billion in automotive products from the United States and US$17.623 billion in exports to the United States. On the surface, China has a surplus of more than 1.8 billion US dollars. However, the main body of the enterprise exported to the United States is carefully analyzed. The whole vehicle is mainly based on the products of the joint venture of General Motors. Although the export of new energy vehicles is mainly based on Chinese brands, the number is very small. In 2017, less than 300 vehicles were exported to the United States; A considerable part of the parts and components that come to the United States are produced by foreign companies in China, including Delphi in the United States.
It can be said that there are me in the cars of China and the United States, and I have you. The United States ranks third among Chinese auto importers and ranks first among Chinese auto exporters. Therefore, Sino-US trade frictions will cause losses in both automotive industries.
â– Based on the list of current tariffs: the United States loses in the entire vehicle, and China loses parts and components.
From the list currently listed by both China and the United States, it is aimed at the precise addition of the larger products of the other party. Although both lists include complete vehicles and parts, the United States mainly targets Chinese parts, while China mainly targets the entire US. As can be seen from the figures for 2017, the number of US vehicles exported to China is 280,200, amounting to 13.1 billion US dollars; while China's exports to the United States are only 53,300 vehicles, the amount is only 1.43 billion US dollars; the US trade surplus It is $11.67 billion. China’s exports of auto parts to the United States were US$16.19 billion, compared with US$2.76 billion from the US, and China’s surplus was US$13.43 billion. Although China's auto products trade has a general surplus, it is basically offset by the export of complete vehicles and parts produced by the US joint ventures in China.
â– The current level of trade friction has little effect on the sales of Chinese and American vehicles
In 2017, China's automobile sales were 2,788,900, of which only 1,063,800 were exported, and most of them were exported to developing countries, and only 533,000 were exported to the United States, accounting for 5.01% of China's total exports. Compared with China's huge market sales, the number of Chinese vehicles exported to the United States is almost negligible, accounting for only 0.18%.
The current level of trade friction has little impact on the traditional American auto companies. First, the US auto brands currently sold in China are mainly produced by joint ventures in China. For example, in 2017, SAIC-GM sold more than 2 million units, and Changan Ford also sold more than 1 million units. Second, although the US brands and models that have not been localized in China (such as Lincoln, Cadillac, etc.) have an impact, but the degree is not large, because some models sold in China are not produced in the United States. For example, in 2017, the imported Lincoln brand sold 54,124 units in China, but some models were produced in Mexico and Canada. In fact, not all American cars imported from the United States in 2017 include the BMW X5 and X6, which are native to the United States, Mercedes-Benz GLS, which is native to the United States, and the Acura, which is native to the United States.
Therefore, for American automakers with a high degree of localization in China, the current trade friction will not have much negative impact on the production and sales of enterprises, but it will affect the products of Tesla, Lincoln and other imported auto products. Big.
â– Cost of production: the impact on US companies is higher than that of Chinese companies
The US 301 survey of Chinese products proposed to impose tariffs on a total of 16 categories. Except for the 28th category involving radioactive clauses, only 4 products were proposed, and the remaining 15 categories contained many products. For example, the 87th category includes 42 vehicles and parts, and the terminal products involved in more than 200 types; motorcycles involve 5 items. The author believes that the addition of a 25% tariff on parts from China will inevitably affect some of the US manufacturing costs.
In addition, the 85th category includes motors, batteries, radars, displays, circuits, electronic components, semiconductor devices, etc. Classes 72/73 and 76 are steel products and aluminum products, respectively, which will also increase the cost of automobile manufacturing in the United States.
Judging from the current list of 14 categories of 106 products counter-produced in China, only one category 28 products are affected, of which 27 are complete vehicles and only one belongs to parts. Therefore, at present, the impact on China's automobile manufacturing costs is small.
â– If the trade friction is upgraded: it has the deepest negative impact on American cars, and may bring innovation incentives to China.
It should be said that whether the Sino-US trade friction is limited to the current 50 billion US dollars, is still an unknown. When China counterattacked the categories of soybeans, cars and airplanes, Trump said on April 5 that it had instructed the US Trade Representative Office to consider whether it would be appropriate to impose tariffs on additional $100 billion worth of goods imported from China. Therefore, China should fully prepare for both the psychological and physical aspects of this trade friction escalation. Once upgraded, it will bring more losses to the Chinese and American auto industry, but based on the current bilateral auto trade data, the US losses will be significantly greater.
If this is the case, I believe that in addition to Fiat Chrysler, which is not grounded in the Chinese market, GM and Ford will also be hit hard, because the Chinese market is an important foundation for supporting these two hundred-year-old auto giants. According to GM's official data, in 2017, GM's global sales volume was 8.479 million units, and the sales volume in China alone reached 4.04 million units, which is close to half of the market; Ford's sales in China are also close to 20% of its global sales. As for the emerging, Tesla will also be severely hit. In 2017, Tesla sold 18,000 vehicles in China, all of which were imported, with revenues of about US$2 billion, second only to the US market.
Of course, the escalation of trade friction will also bring damage to the Chinese auto industry, especially parts and components. But on the whole, the losses of Chinese automakers are even smaller, because China's annual market size of nearly 30 million vehicles is enough to support the growth of domestic independent brand enterprises, and auto exports account for only 3.6% of total sales. Therefore, the inward-looking Chinese auto industry is more able to withstand trade wars.
To take a step back, if the United States really blocks the core technologies of smart networked cars such as chips, artificial intelligence and big data, especially Europe and Japan, it will stimulate Chinese auto companies and related companies. Innovative passion. In fact, the core technologies of many industries in China are broken under the blockade, such as two bombs and one star, nuclear technology, and Beidou navigation. Therefore, from this perspective, Sino-US trade friction may also become an opportunity for the core technology and innovation breakthrough of China's auto industry, providing sufficient time and space for the development of China's own brand cars.
â– When you fight, can the fisherman benefit?
China and the United States are competing with two major auto countries. Other countries are theoretically able to profit from it, especially German, Japanese, and Korean companies. In fact, companies in these countries can indeed profit, especially those countries that oppose US trade protection and economic hegemony with China. However, there are two situations in which these countries cannot make a profit.
First, Europe, Japan and South Korea followed the United States and started a trade war with China. Although this is unlikely to happen, the situation between the country and the country can happen. In particular, the current Western collective believes that rising China is challenging their values, interests and authority. Under this circumstance, auto companies in countries such as Germany, Japan and South Korea will also be hit hard, which will help Chinese auto brands to better expand their domestic markets.
Second, China and the United States will resolve the issue peacefully, and finally exchange benefits. Those who look at the excitement or the foxes and tigers will definitely follow the "little brothers" of the United States. Not only will they not profit, but they will also lose their vested interests. In many cases, the two sides are often destroyed by third parties, such as the US-Russian battle, the injured are Ukraine and Syria; Changhong competes with Haier, and the Beijing TV is destroyed; Wang Laoji and Jia Duobao fight and are destroyed. It is right with it.
Therefore, for today's trade friction between China and the United States, other auto powers must adhere to the Trump administration with China in order to continue to share China's development opportunities and huge market.
â– Sino-US trade friction China must fight against
The attack on the soldiers, followed by the cut, followed by the cutting soldiers, the next attack on the city. The trade friction is imposed on China by the United States. China has to fight and must fight. Therefore, China’s 232 and 301 tariff lists were announced, and China immediately responded. For example, for the US 301 program, the same size of the product was sacrificed, and the old nest of the Trump ballot was directly selected, including the flying in the sky, the running on the ground, and the soil.
To this end, some scholars and experts in China have jumped out against the trade war with the United States, suggesting that China seeks peace and even seeks for perfection. One of the reasons is that we cannot afford to fight, and the US military and economic strength are stronger than China. The second reason is : Once hit, some industries will be shackled by the United States and even die, such as chips.
Indeed, once the United States completely blocks the chip, it will affect many industries in China, but in the face of the aggressive US momentum, China can only retreat unconditionally. Can it be prayed for the alliance under the city if it is less powerful? Ancient and modern Chinese and foreign countries have always been fighting wars. Never used peace and war. Was the "square agreement" signed by Japan in the 1980s not succumbing to the trade war initiated by the United States? But then it was the beginning of the decline of the Japanese economy.
The reason why the Chinese government is determined to fight and resolve to accompany it to the end, the author believes that the following three points:
First, this trade friction is not a trade issue, but a strategy for the United States to stifle China's rise, trying to block the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The tariffs are directly targeted at China's high-tech industries, and almost include "Made in China." 2025" for all industries.
Second, this trade friction is not just Trump's personal idea, but the consensus of the American elite. They believe that China's strength begins to challenge the existing values ​​and interests of the West and is taking the dignity they have accumulated in the past. And authority, the United States has regarded China as a major strategic opponent and has been written into the country.
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