Overall, the smart phone market will be relatively stable in 2017. Especially for Chinese mobile phone brands, because there is no big channel or technological change, the big picture of China's mobile phone will not change greatly, but the trend of some details should be Attention.
First, China's smart phone market is difficult to change, Huawei OV continues to lead the marketAlthough there is no public data, the past 2016 is obviously a year of harvest for Huawei, OPPO, and VIVO. The three companies are not listed companies, and it is difficult for outsiders to know the actual and specific profitability, but from the industry analysis and various speculations. In view, the profit scale of the three companies should be around 10 billion yuan, which seems to be very beautiful. However, compared with the home appliance manufacturers Gree, Midea and Haier's profits are more than 10 billion, the Chinese mobile phone revolution is far from successful and needs to continue to work hard.
Huawei OV has become the leading group in China's smart phone brand. Of course, this refers to the level of profit. In terms of sales volume, there is no obvious gap between Xiaomi, Lenovo and even TCM, TCL and Jinli. In 2017, the three companies have limited growth space in the mainland, and overseas expansion is the general trend.
Second, going overseas is the identifier of 2017 Chinese smartphoneIf 2016 is the first year for Chinese smartphone brand manufacturers to fully enter the overseas market, after the trial, I believe that the pace of Chinese mobile phone brands entering overseas will increase in 2017.
Although Huawei has been committed to the overseas market in recent years, the gap between the global layout and Samsung is still obvious. Huawei wants to be the challenger of Samsung. The global channel and brand shortage are the main shortcomings. Although Huawei is good in the European market, The population base of European countries is too low. Compared with many emerging markets, Huawei has to enter the global market and needs to solve the unified channel and brand strategy. Otherwise, it is likely to be surpassed by OV in the next few years.
Although OV has little publicity for entering overseas markets, the two companies have achieved good results in the past two years. Unlike Huawei, OV's overseas expansion is basically a strategy of copying domestic, layout channels, large-scale publicity, and positioning of high-end. This model is easy to make breakthroughs in emerging markets. Of course, the two companies will definitely not be limited to emerging markets. OPPO has already announced its entry into the US market. It is believed that the days of entering PK in Europe and Huawei are not far away.
Compared with the brands that Lenovo, ZTE, TCL, and voice have achieved good business overseas in the past few years, Huawei OV is positioned at a higher level and has greater challenges. However, once a breakthrough is made, the pressure on Samsung will be even greater. Huawei OV, etc. Fully entering the overseas market, the pressure on traditional overseas superior manufacturers such as Lenovo is not small. If the big pattern of the mainland mobile phone market has been fixed, the shopping of Chinese brands in overseas markets has just begun.
The next decade is the golden decade for Chinese brands to go overseas. It is worth watching for a number of mobile phone manufacturers with international influence.
Third, Samsung's China strategy determines the global trendSamsung mobile phones have been unfavorable in China in recent years, and their market share has dropped from more than 20% to the current 5%. Of course, there are factors of the explosion of Note 7, but the lack of response to the rise of Huawei OV is the key, presumably Samsung this year. The channel adjustment is to cope with the competition of the three companies, but Huawei OV, which has greatly enhanced its profitability, is objectively late.
If the old man is a Samsung leader, even if he loses more money in the Chinese market, he will suppress the outbreak of Huawei OV, because once Huawei OV grows up, the three companies will get sufficient funds to enter overseas, so Samsung’s overseas market will be fatally Threats, after all, emerging markets are the main addition to smartphones in the next few years.
Once Samsung can't suppress the growth momentum of Huawei OV in the mainland market in 2017, Samsung mobile phones will face increasing profit pressure in the world in the future.
Fourth, chip manufacturers will invest more in mobile phone companiesInternet vendors and venture capital investment in China's mobile phone brands have been a trend in the past few years. However, this trend has basically ended in 2016. Qualcomm, MediaTek and Zhan Rui, which are chip providers in the past year, are all trying to invest in mobile phone brands, among which Ziguang strategic investment Aerospace Technology acquired Haipai and also participated in the acquisition of Dejing Electronics by Sanlian Trading Co., Ltd.. Qualcomm has already invested in Xiaomi. Now, including Qualcomm MediaTek is also trying to invest in other mobile phone manufacturers. It is a good guess. In 2017, the two companies will see those companies. It is clear that the chip company's active investment in mobile phone brands is the best way to stabilize customers in the increasingly clear environment of the smart phone market.
5. OLED panel, memory, high-end image sensor and other key components are out of stock or throughout the year.The overall innovation of smart phones is insufficient. However, OLED panels will become the mainstream in the market. Although BOE and Sharp are actively building factories, it is impossible to form mass production in 2017. Samsung will still occupy the main share of OLED panels. With the introduction of OLED panels from Apple, the shortage of production capacity will be more serious.
The reason for the shortage of memory and high-end cameras is the increase in mobile phone memory and the gradual popularization of dual cameras. Due to the time required for the construction and production capacity release, it is difficult to solve the shortage in 2017.
The shortage of core components for the second and third-line brands will have a greater impact, and will directly promote the further reshuffle of the mobile phone market.
Sixth, second and third line mobile phone brands accelerate integration and restructuringIn 2016, it is a difficult year for Lenovo, ZTE, TCL, LeTV, 360, etc. Abandonment or persistence is definitely the theme of the management of these manufacturers for one year.
Relative to the outbreak of Huawei OV and the surge in profits, the profitability and survival pressure of second- and third-line brands are increasing. Lenovo claims that it will achieve profitability in 2017. It is good to guess, at the expense of reducing investment in the mainland market, the main market in the future. Incremental from overseas, for Lenovo, ZTE, TCL and other brands that have certain advantages overseas, it is obviously a wise choice to strategically abandon the mainland's key overseas deployment in the short term. Otherwise, with the expansion of Huawei OV in overseas markets, survival will be It is a problem.
360 shares in Bailifeng is obviously the signal that Zhou Hongyi is about to give up the mobile phone. It is said that Zhou Hongyi has already sent the Great God brand to Bai Lifeng. The resurrection of the Great God may not be far behind. It has been said that Coolpad will acquire the hammer, but because the music crisis has affected Coolpad. The probability of re-acquisition in the short term is not estimated, but the integration of LeTV and Coolpad is still a high probability event.
Seven, offline channels continue to carry forwardChannel reorganization is the main theme of 2016 China mobile phone brand. The rise of OV has benefited from the offline channel. In fact, not only OV, including Jinli and Bailifeng, directly benefited. Although there is no big publicity of Internet brands, the two companies have achieved good results in 2016. The performance, Jin Li sales exceeded 40 million, Bai Lifeng sales to the low-end market and operators also exceeded 20 million, the most important thing is that both companies have achieved good profits, Zhou Hongyi is a wise investment in Bai Lifeng select.
Huawei's Qianxian plan, Xiaomi's new channel campaign, and OV's strong entry into first- and second-tier cities are all strategic arrangements for improving the offline layout of mobile phone brands. In the Chinese market, channels are always an important and even decisive factor in determining the trend of mobile phone brands.
Eight, Huawei OV sales will surpass Samsung.In 2016, the sales volume of Huawei OV was less than 30 million from Samsung. The current market sent three companies' forecasts for suppliers in 2017. Surpassing Samsung sales is a high probability event, but the domestic market has limited increments. It is still necessary for the three companies to challenge Samsung in the global market. It will take several years or even longer to stabilize the mainland market to maintain the best profitability.
Nine, the probability of full-scale outbreak of mobile phone patent war in mainland China is not bigIn 2016, news about mobile phone patent wars raged, Qualcomm sued Meizu, Ericsson sued Jin Li and Xiaomi in India, Dolby sued OV in India, Huawei sued Tianzhu in Guangzhou, and various lawyers like snow flies, giving the outside world a patent war At the touch of a hair.
Many patent giants including Ericsson, Nokia, Huawei, ZTE, Interdigital and so on have raised the banner for Chinese mobile phone manufacturers, but it is really necessary to erupt a large-scale patent war. The old man thinks that it still needs a big environmental change, although Trump may take a bigger step to China. The pressure of intellectual property protection, various patent litigations will continue to increase, and the arrival of China's mobile phone comprehensive patent payment era is still impossible.
The protection of intellectual property rights is a trend, and it is also a guarantee for the mainland to achieve innovation and upgrading, but it must wait for the real realization.
X. The exploration of the Internet model of Chinese mobile phones is coming to an endIt is said that Xiaomi is an Internet mobile phone rather than an Internet channel mobile phone. After years of Internet investment, it will completely come to an end in 2017. LeTV’s financing of RMB 15 billion has solved the financial difficulties of LeTV mobile phones, but there is still no LeTV mobile phone. To solve the profit problem, LeTV TV Ecology can be established, but compared to TV, the life cycle of mobile phone is too short. It seems that it is impossible to make up for the profit of mobile phone through the membership fee system. The failure of LeTV's mobile phone ecosystem will close the Internet model and explore the door of mobile phone brand.
The mobile phone is still the mobile phone. The Internet can change the channel of the mobile phone, but it is difficult to change the operating rules and rules of the upgrade industry. The so-called Internet phone can be a break!
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