The official version of the distributed subsidy will be issued after August. The EU anti-dumping will levy a temporary tax rate of 11.8% from June 6. If it does not reach a resolution before August 6, it will rise to 47.6%.

As a countermeasure against hesitation, distributed subsidies are expected to be launched in a timely manner after the policy game. On the other hand, 14 provinces and cities distributed demonstration projects were launched before the end of July, which also raised the time and digital expectations for the introduction of distributed subsidy policies. The landing of the official subsidy will clear the obstacles for the advancement of the distributed demonstration project. It is expected that the demand for domestic PV will increase by 2GW and 6GW in 13-14 years.

Compared with the discussion paper, there is no room for a subsidy value in the official draft, and there is a large probability of upward adjustment. The discussion paper of 0.35 yuan/degree subsidy is expected to be low, and IRR is low, making distributed promotion under pressure. The current market is generally expected that the official draft of the subsidy will be raised to 0.35 ~ 0.45 yuan / degree, part of the remainder of the Internet according to the "power desulfurization desulfurization power subsidies." Another expectation is to change the mode of subsidy, from a unified subsidy of 0.35 yuan/degree to a subsidy of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 yuan/degree for industrial and commercial, large industries, residents/schools/hospitals, and a self-use benefit of 1 yuan to 1.2 yuan/degree. The remaining part of the Internet access is 0.75 yuan/degree, which can also guarantee the return on investment of the project.

If the degree of electricity subsidies is increased by 0.05~0.10 yuan/degree, the IRR of most provinces and cities is higher than 8%.

According to the discussion paper of 0.35 yuan/degree, the IRR of most provincial and municipal projects is below 8% of the bottom line of the return rate of central enterprises. Upward adjustment of 0.05~0.10 yuan/degree will return the IRR of industrial and commercial projects in most provinces and cities back to more than 8%, of which the IRR of photovoltaic-intensive enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces will increase from 5% to 12%, and some of the projects in eastern provinces and cities with better benefits will be IRR can even reach 15%. The upward adjustment of the subsidy will greatly increase the attractiveness of demonstration projects, ensure the implementation of policies, and enhance the development potential of distributed marketization projects.

If the electricity subsidies are increased to 0.45 yuan/kWh, the distribution will have the potential for market promotion.

According to our calculations, the IRR of distributed power plant projects in 28 provinces and cities is higher than 8%, and the IRR of most projects in eastern provinces and cities falls between the assumption that self-use and surplus Internet access enjoy a subsidy of 0.45 yuan/degree. From 12% to 16%, this economic benefit is sufficient to support distributed commercial and industrial projects for large-scale market promotion.

Focus on topical opportunities. The distributed policy is expected to be honored in the near future. From the perspective of the degree of benefit, system integration services and engineering> inverters> monocrystalline silicon wafers> battery modules will benefit SunPower, Longji, Oriental Sunrise, Hairun PV, and billion. Crystal Optoelectronics and Sunflowers, etc., suggest to pay attention to the trading opportunities brought by the formal distribution of distributed subsidies.