The 2016 Gaogong LED Annual Conference has closed, but many live speakers from leading companies in the segmentation industry have brought a lot of current status interpretations and reflections on the future. From the beginning of this issue, we will continue to publish the "Bright Spots" PPT of some of the speakers at the Senior Engineers LED Annual Meeting, and interpret the future of the LED industry.
Since 2008, we have proposed to look at the LED industry with a critical eye. In 2011, everyone thought that indoor lighting was a huge "blue sea". After two years, from light red to deep red, it became a "red sea" that made the whole industry pay a huge price and also gained huge benefits. .
In the past three years, what do you rate? Basically, it is bigger than hardware. Going to 2016, what did you do in 2016? 2016 was a bit quiet before the dawn of the war, this quiet is actually from the hard power to the soft power.
2016 is a very special year, and it can be said that the entire industry has reached a crossroads.
The global market size in 2016 is a skiing state. It jumps directly from 2014. In the future, the following landslides will be more buffered, but the growth rate at this time is already less than 5%, which is global. China will be a little better, but the overall trend is the same, because China has a very high proportion of the world.
We see that the upstream growth last year was more than 4%, the middle distance will be higher, and the downstream will be slightly higher. However, this kind of data is within 10%, which has exerted invisible pressure on everyone.
The most important thing is general lighting. The global penetration rate of general lighting is only 36%, which gives us some confidence. There is still a lot of room for lighting around the world, and there is still a lot of room for overseas markets in the future.
From the perspective of lighting, the demand distribution of the entire market. From the perspective of demand growth, China's demand growth is not too high, and our demand increase accounts for more than 4% of the global point, but don't underestimate this 4% because it is global. Demand in North America, Europe, Japan and South Korea slowed down, and Japanese lighting began to pick up again. Europe was very good last year, and the North American market is the best performing market except China.
In the next few years, the LED industry's average annual compound growth is only 5%. Therefore, everyone must be prepared. We have a 15% growth rate last year. Starting in 2016, we will be below 10% in the next few years and will continue to around 4%. This is something we should consider very carefully in the next few years.
In a sense, the LED industry has entered a low-speed growth cycle since 2016, in other words, it has entered the ranks of traditional industries. Please put down the traditional attitude of high-tech LED semiconductor lighting. Of course, there are a lot of new technologies, but those are some of the tributaries on the banks of the big rivers.
Now the entire LED industry is similar to traditional manufacturing, even worse than some traditional industries. Because the annual growth rate of the entire industry is less than 10%, we are regarded as entering the traditional industry development cycle. Therefore, everyone must do these psychological preparations.
2016 is a turning point for LED. The RMB exchange rate has fallen, which has caused the price of raw materials to rise. These prices are in every industry. Everyone should be used to it because the raw materials themselves are a volatile and cyclical industry.
There is a positional power in the chess game. The horse jumps like this. When the horse is tied to the position next to it, you only have two steps to go. But when you move it to the middle, you can have eight positions and four times more positions. So you should find your place.
You say you want to focus, subdivide, cross-border, only you know, no one knows, you have to know your own industry characteristics, your own intentions, what you do, where you will win. Therefore, the position of power is found out by itself.
Package, from XVGA to HDMI, to UHD4K2K, to UHD8K4K. I want to have a higher node, I have to make it very small. CSP means that the package is about 1.2 times larger than the chip.
There are several concepts about CSP: one is to have a substrate, the traditional substrate is used to make a wire, and the other is to have no substrate, and the position of the wire is connected. Jingyuan Optoelectronics has been doing it since 2008. The entire CSP is supplied to the world. Last year, our CSP accounted for 30% of the global total, mainly in backlight.
Reshuffle, integration, injection, segmentation, cross-border, and capital are the future choices for LED companies. In the future, the LED industry is full of competition and full of hope.
1. Lighting to increase functionality for future development, such as smart lighting, human factors engineering.
2. The backlight is developed with the improvement of color rendering and CSP reduction. The high color rendering backlight module and QD are one of the solutions.
3, QD needs to solve the cost problem to be popular, and QD-CSP is one of the most important technologies.
4, small-pitch display is in full swing, but the cost is high, uLED is one of the important solutions for ultra-small spacing.
5. In addition, the application of UV and IR is gradually increasing.
Since last year, we have also felt very much pressure, mainly in two aspects: cost and capacity. Now the company has been expanding production, but the profits of the entire industry have dropped very badly. We are now building a concept of “Packaging Industry 4.0â€.
Industry 4.0 was first proposed by Germany. The degree of automation of LED packaging is very high. In the past two years, the whole labor cost has grown very fast. We hope to rely on the automation of the entire equipment through the concept of Industry 4.0, while optimizing the internal network and management platform, as much as possible. Reduce the participation of the entire staff, improve the overall production efficiency and production output.
We have developed new modules for the ERP system and even the information system of each link in the entire production workshop. At present, we have basically realized the order from the order, all the way to the order delivery can be seen in the system in real time.
We believe that automotive lighting is currently a very big breakthrough in the LED industry, especially packaging, but the difficulty is indeed very large.
The entire automotive lighting has a pre-installation market and a post-installation market. The objects to be matched are different. It may be necessary to cooperate with the whole lamp factory and the module factory. The business model will be relatively complicated. However, we have already seen that several companies in the same industry have already imported into the market of headlights through the participation of shares. COB is on the headlights of car lighting, and there will be a big breakthrough in the future.
Sony's Micro LED power consumption will drop by 30%. If it succeeds, it will have a big subversion in the backlight field and backlight display. We are also currently focusing on the development of Micro LED technology.
At present, we have been involved in the development of the third-generation semiconductor industry southern base in Guangdong Province. In the future, we can make the current LED packaging equipment packaged in power devices, and can do some compatibility and sharing. This is also a new industry that we value very much. direction.
In the general lighting market, customers are paying more and more attention, and customers are increasingly demanding. They are not limited to the requirements of luminous flux and cost. For life indicators, 15,000 hours, 25,000 hours, 50,000 hours, The device and how to design it? Reliability does not work? Does the device have blue ocean hazard and pass the photobiosafety test.
These technical points require enterprises to invest a large amount of research and development resources to continue to develop around the customer's concerns and continuously improve the competitiveness of the products.
For the indoor display market, the small-pitch market continues to break out. What kind of products should the indoor display P0.8 use? What solution should I use under P0.8? How can the outdoor display improve its moisture and UV resistance? Improve its contrast and solve its small spacing problem? These problems require companies to invest a lot of research and development resources, constantly upgrade and improve existing products, and develop solutions with smaller spacing.
After the price wars and industry reshuffles in previous years, the industry is shifting from blindly pursuing low prices to focusing on products itself. This is the advantage of our big companies. And some small and medium-sized enterprises without core technology have forced to close down, or turn to a certain segment, which led to the gradual increase of industry concentration.
At present, the whole industry presents several situations: the demand for the entire market is increasing. At present, although the demand for LEDs continues to increase, the competitiveness of overseas packaging giants in general lighting devices is gradually weakened, including Nichia, Osram, Lumileds, International companies, including Samsung, are constantly seeking differentiated markets, avoiding the disadvantages of capacity, and even transferring some orders to domestic packaging plants for OEM.
Since the domestic market began last year, only large companies such as Mulinsen, Guoxing, Hongli, and Zhaochi are in continuous capacity expansion. In the conventional general-purpose devices, SMEs are at a disadvantage in terms of brand, capital, technology, scale, and production capacity. The supply-side reform is not suitable, the technology is backward, and the market is gradually withdrawn. M&A phenomenon is frequent, and the leading share of large enterprises in the market has been obtained. strengthen.
In 2015, LED manufacturers' top ten revenues and listed earnings reports. In 2016, from the first three quarters of earnings reports, the industry concentration in 2016 was further improved. It is expected that the top ten manufacturers should have four to five clubs that can enter 5 billion.
From the data of 2015 high-tech LEDs: In 2015, there were more than 20%, and about 4,000 LED-related companies withdrew from the market. Lighting and packaging companies are also constantly increasing their industrial concentration and eroding the share of SMEs.
According to the high-tech LED data, the number of packaging companies is estimated to be only 1,000 in 2016, and there will be only 500 packages left by 2020. The capacity of packaging investment is not difficult, but the core competitiveness, cost control, technology development capabilities, backward production capacity and backward technology will be continuously eliminated, and new entry will be significantly reduced. Therefore, the law of Evergrande, the major in the packaging industry, will become more and more obvious.
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