We can't help but ask, what is wrong with this company that is highly sought after by fans in the US and around the world?
In fact, Tesla's problems have been around for a long time. Just in the media, it was covered up by various auras and hype, and almost no one touched the real issue. In my opinion, the core problem of Tesla is that this "net red" company has never been a qualified manufacturing company! It seems to be the cutting-edge concept and advanced technology, and the output of various dreams and feelings can continue to attract many fans. However, Tesla wants to truly become a company with sustained and stable profitability, and the road to go is still very long.
At the same time, Tesla's current problems are also the problem of the entire American industry, which can be regarded as a microcosm of the decline of American industry.
First, Tesla has never achieved profit. Since its inception in 2006, Tesla has never achieved profitability in a financial year for 12 years. It has been relying on financing and issuing various bonds in the capital market.
Second, the capacity target for external commitment has never been achieved. Since the introduction of Model S, Model X SUV and Model3, Tesla has never achieved the goal of its externally committed capacity. This is the main reason why the capital market has panicked its stocks recently.
In May 2016, CEO Musk promised to increase the production of Model 3 in the Silicon Valley plant to 5,000 vehicles per week. But this goal has been repeatedly reneped.
Until recently, Musk said the 5,000-unit indicator and mentioned that in the company's internal e-mail, he promised to make 6,000 units per week, which eased the capital market and investors to him. Anxiety.
Third, a price-earnings ratio of up to 135 times the wonderful company. According to the estimated profit income of Tesla in 2019 (and of course still losing money), its price-earnings ratio is as high as 135 times. Yes, you are not mistaken, it is 135 times! And Tesla's operating efficiency, that is, per capita operating income, is far lower than the old car manufacturers GM and Ford, to know that GM and Ford's price-earnings ratio is less than 6 times! Therefore, from the perspective of capital investment and future earnings prospects, Tesla's problems are also very serious.
2/ Return to the essence of management and production, rational analysis of Tesla's dilemmaElron Musk, as a symbol of Silicon Valley and even American innovation, its influence is undoubtedly huge, and fans' support for him can be said to be fanatical and loyal. Tesla is the only car manufacturer that fans are willing to pay a deposit to order a car before any product is released, even if it is scheduled 2-5 years in advance.
However, if we leave these gimmicks and all kinds of illusions and rational analysis from the nature of management and production, we will find that Tesla's business problems are actually very serious.
So what about the legendary production line? From the above photo, we saw Tesla's production line, just a short paragraph in the final stage of production.
The only manufacturing plant in Tesla that we visited at the time, the whole production process was very loose. The workers were in twos and threes, and there was no intense production process in the real assembly line. This is in stark contrast to the highly flexible and automated production of automotive production lines, whether it is Japanese, American or German-owned automotive production lines. This made us all very surprised at the time.
We also raised this issue when talking to Tesla executives. The annual production of Tesla Model3 was only 50,000, and they expect to reach 300,000 in two years, 2018. We have questioned this: a production line that is not continuous and automated, and the output should be increased from 50,000 to 300,000. How can we do this?
At that time, the executive explained to us that in addition to the Silicon Valley site, Tesla also built production lines in two other regions, which could meet the capacity requirements after completion. In the eyes of a group of people with industrial production and management background, this matter is very unreliable.
It can be said that Tesla's most serious and fundamental problem is that the production method and organization management are very rough.
It spends a lot of energy on external branding and feelings, but the real industrial core foundation, that is, process management and core manufacturing management, is not only comparable to the automotive industry, but also compared with traditional manufacturing industries. Poor.
Second, Tesla has no advantage in the battery technology part of the core of electric vehicles.
At present, Tesla is facing another biggest dilemma, its core battery technology. Battery cost accounts for about 50% of the cost of an electric car. It can be said that the core of electric vehicles lies in the battery. At present, Tesla's battery is mainly purchased from Matsushita Corporation of Japan.
Today, Tesla has to face a new rival with a sudden emergence, that is, battery manufacturers from China, the typical one is the Fujian Ningde era just completed the IPO application.
In the Ningde era, it was a very solid battery manufacturing company because it was born in a mature environment with good manufacturing and cost control. In the 2017 prospectus, we saw that the cost per kWh of car batteries in Ningde era has dropped below 1,500 yuan, equivalent to more than 200 US dollars, which has been reduced by 30% compared with 2016. The goal is to have batteries every The cost per kWh is completely reduced.
In the past 20 years, American industry, including the automotive industry, has been pursuing outsourcing production in low-cost countries and regions around the world, which has led to the rise of emerging manufacturing powers like China, and naturally also to the manufacturing capabilities, technical standards and workers of the United States. The working state has changed dramatically.
Today, it is very difficult to set up a manufacturing business factory in the United States that can truly compete with China.
Although the United States still has a very strong R&D capability, if it cannot be closely integrated with manufacturing, this kind of research and development itself will not have any vitality, so R&D must be produced together; in other words, a company with highly developed manufacturing capabilities and manufacturing processes. And the region, the level of R&D can naturally continue to improve, which is a process that complements each other and promotes each other.
The situation in Tesla is not accidental, but a microcosm of the entire American industry. Although US President Trump is currently trying to suppress China in trade and trying to return American industry to the homeland, thereby promoting local production and employment. But the epitome of Tesla, let us see that this process is to be achieved, will be very, very difficult.
Just as Jobs told the US President Barack Obama before his death: "If these important manufacturing capabilities go out, they will never come back." Even if you can really move back, you need to adopt a more efficient automated production line. To achieve, we also need a supporting supply chain system. This process will be very difficult and long, and it will never happen overnight.
There are also a lot of Tesla fans around me. Whenever they talk to me about how to be optimistic about Tesla's future, I can't help but splash the cold water. In my opinion, from the perspective of rationality and reality, this company is likely to suddenly close down or sell to others one day.
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